Mid-day update

Closed the losing side of my short position once the overall profit of the position was above my threshold. Still holding 1 short USD/CHF with a stop placed at my minimum profit target of 1.1387. The price could move right back to that stop and that will be it, or it could keep moving south and make this trade quite profitable.

Trading results 4/13

Opened 1 long position yesterday at a daily divergence of -.25%. Price moved down past that level and all 3 positions were held overnight. The E/C is hovering around 1.5130 at this writing which puts my short quite close to being profitable, it was opened at 1.5141.

Reserve Currency Madness

China, for at least the 2nd time this month, has made it known they think that the U.S. Dollar should be replaced as the world's reserve currency. Why is this madness? Well for one thing they are holding a lot of both U.S. Dollars and U.S. government debt, both of which would plummet in value if the reserve currency status ended. Much more research on my part needs to be completed to get an accurate view on this whole issue but suffice it to say that I don't think anything will come of it, but if it does watch out.

Trading results 4/10

Only took 3 trades this past week which is lower than usual. However, it was a profitable week which is all I can ask for. After 12pm on Thursday there wasn't much trading going on as Europe and the U.S. were closed for Good Friday. I'm still holding the 1 long and 1 short position that have been open for a while. This does limit my ability to enter new positions but its better than taking the large loss that would come with closing either or both of those at this point. This week should be business as usual looking for both long and short entries and booking profits when possible. I still think the the SNB, Swiss National Bank, will step in as a buyer if the E/C goes to far down. 2 weeks ago it pushed all the way down under 1.5100 which put it as close as 2.5% to the point where they intervened the last time. The question is how many traders want to take the risk and sell as it drifts down because if they guess wrong it would be costly.

Today's tight range = US Employment numbers

The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is releasing the non-farm payroll report this morning. This is the initial read on March unemployment in the U.S. along with probable revisions to the last 2 month's reports. This news event is specifically why the market is in a tight range throughout the European session. Traders don't want to be on the wrong side of this report when is released at 8:30AM EST.
Last month it came in at -651k. The consensus, or expectation, for this month is -659k. If the report is close to that number on either side the response will be fairly muted. However, if it is very weak the dollar with get hammered. If it is a lot better than expected the dollar will probably rally. The way I setup positions to be relatively dollar neutral this could be a non-event either way for the portfolio. It still has to be watched because if one side or the other moves at a greater velocity it might create opportunities to close positions at higher then normal profit.

Trading results 4/2

I've been trading but since each position is a larger percentage of the balance I have to be more conservative with my entries. Still holding a long at E/C 1.5350 and a short at 1.5140. These positions might be held a while but I can still take positions as opportunities arise. Opened another short yesterday after the strong run from 1.5174 all the way up to 1.5283. My entry was at 1.5274. The E/C seems to be hanging around this area with typically weak volume this morning so the position is still open. Right now its a profitable position so I'll decide later in the day whether or not to close before the weekend. The rationale for this is that Sunday opens often bring gaps and the risk is that the price could gap up on some action by the SNB, EU, or US Fed and not come back to these levels for a while.