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Monthly Trading Results

Monthly Trading Results

Thursday, July 2, 2009

More from the SNB quarterly report

There is a statement on page 29 about how the depreciation of the franc against the euro has been partially offset by the appreciation of the franc against the dollar. This statement could lend some credibility to the claims that the 2nd big move last Thursday that started with the USD/CHF was some sort of intervention.
There isn't much more about their past or future interventions but there is some interesting economic data and viewpoints. Basically, they think that the economies of most industrialized nations will begin to grow modestly late this year, mostly as a result of government stimulus. China has already hit the bottom and should rebound quicker than the rest of us, and it will take a number of years for the various governments to recover from this massive stimulus/debt binge. Chart 2.4 on Page 17 gives a pretty good graphical representation of why the Swiss economy is so closely tied, and their currency so correlated, with the European Union, and its all about exports.

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